The ArkStorm – A California Superstorm of Biblical Proportions
OK How Biblical can a stormreally be, I mean we're talking Noah and the flood Right??
The ArkStorm – A California Superstorm of Biblical Proportions is not just any storm and it is not a fake scenario. It is a computer model of storm events that have occurred many times in the last 2000 years and as recently as 1862.
The ARkStorm Scenario is about:
- A storm that lasts for up to 40 days (yeah rings a bell right?),
- Causes up to $750 Billion dollars in damages.
- Results in the evacuation of 1.5 million people
- And creates an atmospheric water flow to California the equivalent of 50 Mississippi rivers.
- This would result in up to 10 feet of water being dumped on the state. Yes, 10 feet.
Yes, very biblical indeed!.
About The ArkStorm – A California Superstorm of Biblical Proportions – Who What Where When How
Who:
The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency.
The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens.
WHAT:
This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). You can click on this link to download the 40 meg report and read it all yourself!
Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences.
WHERE and WHEN:
The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years.
HOW:
Impacts of the California Superstorem – AKA ARkStorm:
1) Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state’s flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs.
The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide.
Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities.
Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds.
Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour.
Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes.
Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding.
Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent.
Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $400 billion, of which $20 to $30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance.
Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore.
Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties.
Business interruption costs reach $325 billion in addition to the $400 property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability.
These impacts were estimated by a team of 117 scientists, engineers, public-policy experts, insurance experts, and employees of the affected lifelines. In many aspects the ARkStorm produced new science, such as the model of coastal inundation. The products of the ARkStorm are intended for use by emergency planners, utility operators, policymakers, and others to inform preparedness plans and to enhance resiliency.
OK thats it for our The ArkStorm – A California Superstorm of Biblical Proportions article
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